Equity Research Performance

Daily-close tracking for LF0 equity research ratings. Returns are measured from the adjusted close on the publication entry date to the latest available adjusted close (or the frozen close-out date once a call’s tracking window ends). This is a research scorecard, not a trading record.

Articles tracked (excl. Hold)49
Active long/short calls49
Average signal return+3.1%
Call hit rate+61.2%

139 total calls tracked including Hold. Hold is excluded from the KPI tiles above since it isn’t a directional long/short position.

How to read this: Signal return is direction-adjusted. Buy calls count the stock return directly; Sell calls flip the sign because the bearish call works when the stock falls. Strong Buy and Strong Sell use the same idea with 1.5x conviction weighting.

Current read: the scorecard is mixed, not convincingly strong. The average directional call is roughly flat and the call hit rate is near a coin flip. Buy calls have worked better so far, while Strong Sell is a tiny sample and is currently performing poorly because those stocks rose after the bearish calls. A low monthly Sell hit rate means the bearish calls in that month have not been right yet.

Use the dashboard as the public receipt for LF0 stock research.Every Buy, Sell, Strong Buy, and Strong Sell call is linked back to the original article and updated from daily-close data.

Weekly Performance Article Archive

This week – Sep 4, 2026

Weekly Performance Update — September 04, 2026

Articles136
Hit Rate57.4%
Avg Signal Return2.79%

Across 136 articles, our hit rate is 57.4% and our average signal return is 2.79%, so the book is still modestly positive overall. This run, Buy is the strongest tier on accuracy and average signal return, w…

Read update
Last week – Aug 28, 2026

Weekly Performance Update — August 28, 2026

Articles125
Hit Rate55.6%
Avg Signal Return-0.94%

Across 125 articles, our hit rate is 55.6% and our average signal return is -0.94%, so the record is mixed rather than cleanly directional. This run, Buy is the strongest tier on the numbers we have, while S…

Read update
Previous – Aug 21, 2026

Weekly Performance Update — August 21, 2026

Articles109
Hit Rate62.5%
Avg Signal Return0.62%

Across 109 tracked articles, our hit rate is 62.5% and our average signal return is 0.62%, so the book is still modestly positive overall. This run, Buy is the strongest tier on both accuracy and average sig…

Read update

A new weekly performance article is published each Friday; this dashboard stays as the live daily-close scorecard.

Cautious on U.S. Companies, Not Calling a Crash

Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
90
Sell
44
Strong Sell
2

The mix is deliberately defensive: most covered companies are Hold, with more Sell/Strong Sell calls than Buy/Strong Buy calls. That is a company-level valuation and fundamentals read, not a macro recession forecast. Hold calls are monitored separately because they are not directional portfolio positions.

Performance by Rating

Strong Buy

Articles0
Avg Stock Returnn/a
Avg Signal Returnn/a
Call Hit Raten/a

Buy

Articles3
Avg Stock Return+7.2%
Avg Signal Return+7.2%
Call Hit Rate+66.7%

Hold

Articles90
Avg Stock Return+1.2%
Avg Signal Returnn/a
Call Hit Rate+70.0%

Sell

Articles44
Avg Stock Return-3.4%
Avg Signal Return+3.4%
Call Hit Rate+61.4%

Strong Sell

Articles2
Avg Stock Return+6.6%
Avg Signal Return-9.9%
Call Hit Rate+50.0%

Call Hit Rate = Correct for Buy/Sell-style ratings, or stayed within the +/-10% band for Hold.

What We Got Right And Wrong

Correctness Summary

LF0 RatingCallsRight So FarWrong So FarHit Rate
Strong Buy000n/a
Buy321+66.7%
Hold906327+70.0%
Sell442717+61.4%
Strong Sell211+50.0%

Rating vs Actual Stock Outcome

LF0 RatingStrong Buy outcomeBuy outcomeHold outcomeSell outcomeStrong Sell outcome
Strong Buy00000
Buy10200
Hold101239254
Sell2814146
Strong Sell10010

The first table is the clean score: right versus wrong by LF0 rating. The matrix below shows what actually happened to the stock after entry. Strong Buy outcome means the stock rose 20% or more; Buy outcome is +5% to +20%; Hold outcome is -5% to +5%; Sell outcome is -20% to -5%; Strong Sell outcome is -20% or worse. Green cells are aligned with the original LF0 rating; red cells moved against it.

Cumulative Performance Through Latest Close

Monthly Cohort Cumulative Performance

This chart is grouped by publication month. The current-month point is month-to-date through the latest available close, not a stale month-end value.

Monthly Rating Portfolios

Blended (long/short pooled)

MonthArticlesActiveSignal ReturnLong BookShort BookCall Hit Rate
2026-0953-3.6%n/a-3.6%+33.3%
2026-087020+3.1%+4.9%+2.8%+70.0%
2026-073820-0.1%+20.4%-0.6%+55.0%
2026-06266+17.0%-3.8%+21.1%+66.7%

By Rating

No calls yet.

MonthArticlesAvg Signal ReturnHit Rate
2026-081+4.9%+100.0%
2026-071+20.4%+100.0%
2026-061-3.8%+0.0%
MonthArticlesAvg Stock ReturnHit Rate
2026-092-0.2%+100.0%
2026-0850-2.5%+90.0%
2026-0718+9.4%+61.1%
2026-0620+3.3%+25.0%
MonthArticlesAvg Signal ReturnHit Rate
2026-093-3.6%+33.3%
2026-0818+2.4%+66.7%
2026-0718+0.6%+55.6%
2026-065+21.1%+80.0%
MonthArticlesAvg Signal ReturnHit Rate
2026-081+14.2%+100.0%
2026-071-34.1%+0.0%

Statistical Analysis

This section is new and the sample is very thin: our tracked history spans only a few months, and Ken French’s public factor library itself currently reports data with roughly a two-month lag (this uses the daily-frequency factor file, which gives far more data points per week of overlap than a monthly or weekly file would — “daily” here means one return per trading day, not that the file itself is refreshed daily; its own reporting lag is unaffected by that choice). The usable overlap between the two is often still just a few weeks of trading days per tier today — far short of the years of daily history real factor studies use. CAPM is shown down to a low observation floor “for reference”; the 3-factor model is hidden entirely below its own higher floor. Treat every number below as indicative, not conclusive, and never as a basis for calling any tier “the best” or “the worst.”

CAPM & Fama-French 3-Factor, by Rating

RatingFactor Obs.CAPMFama-French 3-Factor
AlphaBetaR2AlphaMkt BetaSMBHMLR2
Strong Buy0n/aNeed 10+ overlapping factor days (have 0)n/aNeed 20+ overlapping factor days (have 0)
Buy33+5.7%/yr-0.090.00+4.0%/yr0.180.040.430.03
Hold37-28.3%/yr0.900.51-33.7%/yr0.960.440.030.55
Sell37+433.9%/yr-1.880.27+262.2%/yr-1.301.180.870.35
Strong Sell7n/aNeed 10+ overlapping factor days (have 7)n/aNeed 20+ overlapping factor days (have 7)

Factor Obs. is the count of LF0 rating-tier return days that overlap the Ken French factor file, not the age of the full article archive. CAPM appears once a rating tier has 10+ overlapping factor days; Fama-French 3-Factor appears at 20+. The Ken French factor file can lag the current market date, so this table uses the latest overlapping factor/price window available through 2026-07-31.

Style Box (Size × Value/Growth tilt)

Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Buy
Small
Sell
Hold

Stylized: places each tier using its own Fama-French SMB/HML regression coefficients, not Morningstar’s actual holdings-based percentile methodology.

Sector Exposure by Rating

Strong Buy

No calls yet.

Buy

Healthcare2
Basic Materials1

Hold

Technology18
Industrials16
Consumer Cyclical10
Basic Materials9
Energy8

Sell

Technology13
Industrials8
Healthcare6
Energy3
Financial Services3

Strong Sell

Industrials1
Real Estate1

Best Active Calls So Far

TickerRatingPublishedSignal ReturnArticle
BWSell2026-06-19+58.2%Article
MTZSell2026-07-05+36.8%Article
FLNCSell2026-07-23+29.8%Article
CARSell2026-06-21+28.8%Article
MYRGSell2026-07-17+26.7%Article
CIFRSell2026-07-08+22.7%Article
UANBuy2026-07-15+20.4%Article
AEHRSell2026-06-18+17.1%Article

All Equity Research Calls

PublishedTickerRatingEntryLatestStock ReturnSignal ReturnTrackingVerdictArticle
2026-09-06BORRSell$4.44$4.30-3.2%+3.2%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-09-06LARSell$6.70$6.76+0.9%-0.9%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-09-05CYDHold$37.72$37.23-1.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-09-02CUESell$26.96$30.50+13.1%-13.1%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-09-02DACHold$153.31$154.69+0.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-31ERICHold$10.09$10.06-0.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-31FEHold$45.86$46.21+0.8%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-31TDCHold$29.00$27.86-3.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-31WSMHold$228.25$227.52-0.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-29NGLHold$18.97$17.71-6.6%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-29PPGHold$112.17$107.16-4.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-29VRRMHold$4.43$3.73-15.8%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-08-28NBRHold$91.71$90.54-1.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-28NXESell$10.40$10.64+2.3%-2.3%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-08-28RRCHold$41.46$41.74+0.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-27EXRHold$142.79$135.63-5.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-27FLSHold$82.00$75.19-8.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-27SPHRSell$147.34$140.94-4.3%+4.3%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-26ALTSell$3.15$3.35+6.3%-6.3%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-08-26RHold$249.64$244.75-2.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-26STUBHold$6.58$6.01-8.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-26VOYAHold$101.54$102.12+0.6%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-25LHXSell$260.92$250.41-4.0%+4.0%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-24BASell$210.46$206.42-1.9%+1.9%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-24BZUNHold$2.82$2.75-2.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-24MAMAHold$16.50$15.23-7.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-23GPREHold$14.97$15.64+4.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-22SRGStrong Sell$2.11$1.91-9.5%+14.2%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-21CALYHold$15.89$15.39-3.1%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-21LYVHold$181.82$169.99-6.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-21MLMHold$534.05$502.99-5.8%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-20APPFHold$218.85$205.65-6.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-20GTNSell$4.91$4.77-2.9%+2.9%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-20NFGHold$83.94$82.45-1.8%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-20OOMAHold$20.51$22.84+11.4%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-08-19ETSYHold$80.46$71.19-11.5%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-08-19PENNSell$18.56$17.17-7.5%+7.5%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-19RRGBSell$9.51$8.20-13.8%+13.8%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-18DTEHold$140.21$136.06-3.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-18LNTHHold$100.26$100.70+0.4%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-18TXNHold$272.24$261.59-3.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-18WFRDHold$92.05$93.06+1.1%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-17PEGHold$75.61$72.60-4.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-17SDGRSell$17.40$19.20+10.3%-10.3%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-08-17TDSHold$34.52$37.89+9.8%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-16CMGHold$33.76$36.03+6.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-16DKNGHold$25.30$23.66-6.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-16GMHold$84.20$83.76-0.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-16LRCXSell$343.84$315.84-8.1%+8.1%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-16NUTXBuy$188.41$197.68+4.9%+4.9%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-16OSKHold$153.97$152.04-1.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-16STXSSell$1.39$1.32-5.0%+5.0%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-16URBNHold$76.64$77.58+1.2%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-14LUVHold$44.05$38.68-12.2%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-08-14OISell$6.79$6.63-2.4%+2.4%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-14SWBIHold$14.33$13.40-6.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-13AGYSHold$115.20$106.10-7.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-13NNDMSell$1.65$1.50-9.1%+9.1%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-13UPBDHold$19.68$18.11-8.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-12MATHold$14.65$13.76-6.1%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-12OWLTSell$5.81$4.86-16.4%+16.4%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-11ADTNSell$7.76$7.20-7.2%+7.2%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-08-11RELYHold$23.61$24.07+1.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-11STZHold$133.98$121.55-9.3%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-10CLOVHold$4.57$4.34-5.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-09HSTHold$22.67$22.04-2.8%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-09WGSSell$77.88$86.48+11.0%-11.0%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-08-08EPAMHold$97.37$114.68+17.8%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-08-06APPHold$335.67$305.06-9.1%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-05USACHold$25.71$27.68+7.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-04MNSTHold$47.09$42.84-9.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-04PAGPHold$25.45$27.97+9.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-04VNOMSell$41.67$45.27+8.6%-8.6%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-08-03MLIHold$66.37$63.71-4.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-08-01AESSell$14.71$14.82+0.7%-0.7%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-31AMHold$21.97$22.84+4.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-30EMRHold$148.14$150.34+1.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-28TTWOSell$247.62$211.14-14.7%+14.7%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-27AMKRSell$60.60$51.35-15.3%+15.3%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-26AIRHold$136.92$124.60-9.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-25CIHold$289.41$278.17-3.9%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-25NLSTSell$2.44$4.63+89.8%-89.8%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-24CDEHold$15.13$21.00+38.8%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-24QUBTSell$7.43$8.04+8.2%-8.2%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-23FLNCSell$14.42$10.12-29.8%+29.8%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-23SMRStrong Sell$8.81$10.81+22.7%-34.1%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-23TEVAHold$31.18$36.85+18.2%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-22BMNRSell$17.74$24.21+36.5%-36.5%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-22RCATSell$7.83$8.13+3.8%-3.8%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-22RDWSell$8.99$10.70+19.0%-19.0%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-18MARASell$11.67$11.92+2.1%-2.1%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-17KRPHold$14.51$15.17+4.5%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-17MYRGSell$391.51$286.84-26.7%+26.7%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-17NOVTHold$148.71$145.76-2.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-16FORMHold$107.11$114.18+6.6%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-16SANMHold$198.05$206.15+4.1%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-15NEMHold$95.01$128.71+35.5%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-15OMCHold$80.93$78.30-3.2%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-15UANBuy$110.58$133.16+20.4%+20.4%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-14AMBASell$72.90$68.80-5.6%+5.6%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-14HUTSell$98.33$95.92-2.5%+2.5%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-14ONTOSell$319.32$278.40-12.8%+12.8%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-13EQTHold$49.56$54.63+10.2%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-12TPLSell$408.26$374.06-8.4%+8.4%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-11EZPWHold$32.67$33.07+1.2%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-11TGTHold$133.74$157.52+17.8%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-11VSATSell$69.54$72.36+4.1%-4.1%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-10PAASHold$43.52$52.90+21.6%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-07-08CIFRSell$21.85$16.90-22.7%+22.7%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-07HONHold$224.38$204.93-8.7%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-07-05MTZSell$380.63$240.68-36.8%+36.8%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-07-02FTNTSell$156.25$157.22+0.6%-0.6%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-07-02NEMHold$96.84$128.71+32.9%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-27KGCHold$23.75$30.23+27.3%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-27LASRHold$65.04$40.99-37.0%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-27SAPHold$154.90$209.14+35.0%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-22EOSEHold$7.34$4.15-43.5%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-21CARSell$186.28$132.63-28.8%+28.8%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-06-19BWSell$17.76$7.43-58.2%+58.2%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-06-18AEHRSell$115.30$95.56-17.1%+17.1%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-06-18INCYHold$98.22$126.01+28.3%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-18POWLHold$297.07$180.26-39.3%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-18QXOHold$17.76$12.71-28.4%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-15TERHold$432.24$383.69-11.2%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-14BSXBuy$46.76$44.96-3.8%-3.8%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-06-14SOUNSell$7.33$6.48-11.6%+11.6%ActiveCorrect so farView
2026-06-14SYMHold$41.72$42.62+2.2%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-06-14TEAMHold$91.55$177.74+94.1%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-10CELHHold$28.37$27.64-2.6%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-06-10ISRGHold$412.02$353.24-14.3%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-10LYBHold$64.48$64.51+0.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-06-10UTFHold$26.46$26.20-1.0%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-06-09ABTHold$90.60$105.23+16.1%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-09FSLYHold$18.63$22.71+21.9%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-09GEHold$330.03$325.42-1.4%track onlyActiveHold rangeView
2026-06-09PATHHold$10.75$13.57+26.2%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-09SKYHSell$9.37$10.31+10.0%-10.0%ActiveIncorrect so farView
2026-06-09VZHold$45.01$49.74+10.5%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView
2026-06-09WLDNHold$98.82$82.39-16.6%track onlyActiveMoved beyond Hold rangeView

Click a column header to sort. 139 calls tracked in total, one row per ticker per rating call (re-covered tickers show every call).

Methodology

Entry priceAdjusted close on publication date, or next trading day when no close exists.
Tracking windowEach call is tracked for 182 days from publication. Once the window closes, the return and verdict are frozen permanently as a final record and are not re-scored on later refreshes. (The displayed entry/latest dollar prices for closed calls can drift by fractions of a percent on later refreshes if a dividend or split is declared after close-out and Yahoo Finance retroactively rebases historical adjusted closes -- the frozen return and verdict are unaffected, since that rebasing cancels out in the ratio.)
Monthly portfoliosEqual-weighted by article within each publication month; Hold calls are excluded from active long/short return.
Cumulative performance chartChains the equal-weighted monthly cohort signal returns month over month. This is a stylized index, not a daily-rebalanced portfolio.

How a call is scored: Buy and Strong Buy are correct when the stock's return since publication is positive; Sell and Strong Sell are correct when it's negative, with signal return calculated as the inverse of stock return; Hold is correct when the stock stays within a +/-10% band of the entry price.

Generated 2026-09-09T21:31:51+00:00; latest price date 2026-09-09. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.